Economic Forecast Sandbox

U-Haul Mobility–Adjusted Market Growth Model

A lightweight forecasting model that converts a mobility proxy (U-Haul rank/percentile) into a market growth signal, then blends it with fundamentals (rates, housing affordability, labor strength) to predict expansion vs contraction. Designed for scenario analysis, calibration, and export.

Inputs and calibration

State proxy

Metro proxy

Custom series

Geography (label only)

This model is agnostic to the actual geography. Use this as a scenario label.

U-Haul rank (1=highest net inflow)

Converted to percentile signal: (51-rank)/50. Use annual rank or a 5-year average rank.

Mobility shock (scenario) 0%

Captures exogenous shocks to moving demand (fuel spikes, disasters, policy shifts). Applied multiplicatively.

Calibration strength

Controls how much weight the mobility proxy carries relative to fundamentals.

Forecast horizon (quarters)

Quarterly projection of growth signal and recession probability.

Baseline market size (index)

Sets the starting value for the market index trajectory (e.g., 100 = current period).

Model note: U-Haul ranks are ordinal. This sandbox treats mobility as a latent attractor signal, then blends it with fundamentals to predict market growth/contraction. For publishable work, calibrate against an external migration series (IRS/ACS/USPS) and validate out-of-sample.

Fundamentals

Neutral regime

Real interest rate (%, policy + financial conditions)

Higher real rates typically compress credit-sensitive growth; affects housing and capex channels.

Housing affordability stress (0–100)

0 = very affordable, 100 = severe stress. Proxy for constraint on in-migration and consumption.

Current: 55

Labor market strength (0–100)

0 = weak hiring, 100 = tight labor. Impacts wage growth and demand resilience.

Current: 60

Business formation momentum (0–100)

Captures entrepreneurship pipeline (permits, applications, funding climate).

Current: 58

Energy and logistics pressure (0–100)

Higher values reflect cost pressures that can suppress discretionary moving and goods demand.

Current: 45

External demand impulse (−5 to +5)

A generic export/tourism/industry impulse term. Use negative values for demand shocks.

Outputs

Mode: State proxy Not run yet

Mobility signal

—

Normalized proxy in [0,1] with shock applied.

Growth nowcast (annualized)

—

Composite from mobility + fundamentals.

Recession probability (next 4Q)

—

Logit transform of contraction risk factors.

Market index (end of horizon)

—

Trajectory starting at baseline index.

Solid line: Market Index. Dotted line: Growth rate (scaled). Shaded: 25–75% uncertainty band.

Interpretation: This sandbox outputs a blended growth signal, not a structural causal estimate. Treat it as a scenario tool. To publish or deploy: calibrate mobility-to-net-migration mapping using IRS/ACS, validate in rolling windows, and explicitly model measurement error.

Model mechanics (high level): (1) compute mobility percentile; (2) compute fundamentals index; (3) blend via calibration setting; (4) map to growth and recession probability; (5) simulate uncertainty via param perturbation.