Model Design by Kelly Emrick, DHSc, PhD, MBA
How do I Use the AI Inference & Simulation Engine? The AI Inference Engine is designed to help hospital leadership anticipate operational bottlenecks before they occur. To use the model, locate the control panel on the left side of the “Predictive Analytics” module. You will see two interactive sliders: Seasonal Infection Rate (representing external patient-demand factors such as flu season or pandemics) and Staffing Availability (representing internal resource capacity). Adjust these sliders to run “What If” scenarios, for example, slide the Infection Rate to “Level 4” to simulate a surge, or lower Staffing Availability to “85%” to model a nurse strike or holiday shortage.
What does the Model Tell You? As you adjust the variables, the simulation updates in real-time to visualize the System Strain over the coming week. The chart displays three critical data points: 1) Effective Capacity (Blue Area): Your maximum safe patient load based on current staffing. 2) Projected Admissions (Purple Line): The predicted influx of patients based on the infection rate. 3) System Strain (Red Dashed Line): A percentage metric indicating how close the hospital is to breaking point.
The model explicitly outputs a Forecast Status (Stable, Warning, or Critical). If the status turns “Critical,” the text inference will alert you to the specific day bed capacity is expected to be breached, allowing leadership to proactively trigger diversion protocols or call in additional staff days in advance.