Investigative Report | Higher Education | October 2026
The Great Academic Contraction
Program eliminations, workforce cuts, and the shifting tenure line: what they mean for the future of America’s centers of higher education.
- 584 Indiana programs cut or merged
- Full-time staff down 6.6%
- 32% of faculty on the tenure line
- Oct. 2025 to Oct. 2026
Overview
Not one crisis. A coordinated contraction.
Over the twelve months from October 2025 to October 2026, state legislatures turned program review into a statutory mandate, federal policy repriced the revenue streams research universities and graduate schools treated as permanent, and the number of high school graduates began its long decline. The result is a narrowing of what colleges teach, whom they employ, and how securely they employ them.
584
Indiana degree programs eliminated, suspended, or merged under HEA 1001
Indiana Capital Chronicle, Apr. 2026
~90
Ohio undergraduate programs identified for elimination under Senate Bill 1
Mahoning Matters, 2026
-6.6%
Full-time campus staff in 2025, the steepest drop in a decade (part-time staff fell 23.9%)
CUPA-HR, 2026
32%
Faculty holding full-time tenured or tenure-track appointments, down from 53% in 1987
AAUP, fall 2023 data
+7.0%
Tenure-track headcount in 2025: a real rebound, but leading indicators point the other way
CUPA-HR, 2026
-33%
Advertised tenure-track computer science positions for 2026 versus 2024
Computing Research Association, 2026
111,000
Projected fewer international students in fall 2026, a 9.5% decline
NAFSA and JB International, 2026
16%
Private colleges forecast to run negative margins in 2026, up from 7.2% in 2024
Moody’s Ratings, Nov. 2025
Central finding
The contraction is real but uneven, and its most consequential effects are structural rather than numerical.
The number of students enrolled in eliminated programs is small. The positions cut are concentrated in staff roles. Tenure-track headcount actually rose through November 2025. What is changing is the architecture: who decides what a university offers, how much breadth it can afford, whether tenure still protects the people who hold it, and whether the next generation of faculty will be trained at today’s scale.
The colonnade is thinning from the edges
Each column stands for one pillar of the traditional university. Full height marks the pre-2025 baseline; the shortfall marks where this year’s contraction bit hardest. Heights are illustrative of relative pressure, not measured values.
Five findings
Bottom line for leaders
The next five years will reward institutions that make deliberate portfolio choices before a statute or a deficit makes them by default. Program review, workforce planning, and faculty pipeline strategy now have to be managed as one system.
Finding One
Program elimination has become a policy instrument
Universities have always opened and closed programs. What changed in 2025 and 2026 is who initiates the closures. Several legislatures wrote minimum completion thresholds into law, and institutions responded at a scale and speed internal review rarely produces.
State mandates: select a state
Indiana: House Enrolled Act 1001 (2025)
Completion thresholdsPrograms below three-year average graduation minimums must be approved to continue: 10 for associate degrees, 15 for bachelor’s, 7 for master’s. On April 1, 2026, the Commission for Higher Education acted on more than 1,000 programs.
- 210 eliminated or suspended
- 374 merged or consolidated
- 280 new programs temporarily exempt
- 1,279 programs acted on since June 2025
- About 1,700 programs remain after 2026 to 2027
- IU Bloomington alone: more than 100 suspended or eliminated
Sources: Indiana Capital Chronicle; Chalkbeat Indiana; Louisville Public Media; Leiter Reports.
Ohio: Senate Bill 1 (effective June 2025)
Fewer than 5 degrees a yearPublic universities must eliminate any undergraduate program averaging fewer than five degrees a year over any three-year period. The same law mandated post-tenure review, prohibited faculty strikes, and limited bargaining over tenure in retrenchment.
- Nearly 90 undergraduate programs identified for elimination
- Central State: 16 faculty positions cut, including jazz studies
- Toledo’s list: philosophy, Spanish, religious studies, area and identity studies
Sources: Mahoning Matters; Dayton Daily News; Ohio Capital Journal.
Utah: House Bill 265 (2025)
10% reallocationThe state’s eight degree-granting institutions must reallocate 10 percent of state-appropriated academic budgets over three years, about $60 million statewide, from administration and low-enrollment programs into areas the legislature deems high demand.
- University of Utah share: about $20 million
- More than 80 inactive courses, certificates, and programs discontinued (22 in the humanities)
- Reinvestment toward engineering, AI, and biotechnology
- Up to 855 noninstructional positions signaled in Sept. 2026
Sources: Utah House of Representatives; @theU; Higher Ed Dive; Hechinger Report.
Texas: Senate Bill 37 (2025)
Governance and reviewGoverning boards must review general education curricula and degree programs, including return on investment. Faculty senates become advisory only, with composition set by boards, and a new ombudsman office takes complaints of noncompliance.
Source: Texas Legislature, SB 37 bill analysis.
Oklahoma and Iowa
Regent-led reviewOklahoma’s regents cut 41 programs statewide, and Iowa’s Board of Regents ordered its public universities to review their academic portfolios in spring 2026.
Sources: Kutak Rock; Higher Ed Dive.
Indiana’s HEA 1001 outcomes
Number of degree programs, April 1, 2026 commission action.
View the figure as published in the report
Ohio SB 1 eliminations by institution
Undergraduate programs reported eliminated, selected universities.
Source: Mahoning Matters (2026). Ohio University also merged additional programs; Wright State had identified 14 before the law passed.
Institution-led reviews
Cuts are not confined to states with mandates. Filter by driver.
| Institution | Action | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| Penn State University | 47 programs recommended for closure (Oct. 2026) | 47 of 403 programs; 784 students (1.1%); 11 at University Park; 71 more under one-year review; seven Commonwealth campuses closing after 2026 to 2027 |
| East Carolina University | 44 programs discontinued (2026) | Part of a larger budget-reduction effort; programs judged not meeting expectations |
| Portland State University | Retrenchment declared (Mar. 2026) | Reductions across 19 departments; AAUP estimated up to 216 employees could be affected |
| Southern Oregon University | 3 majors cut; 66 positions (June 2026) | 23 faculty and 43 staff positions against a $12.5 million deficit |
| South Carolina State University | 9 programs eliminated (Sept. 2026) | Programs enrolled 111 students |
| University of Toledo | 9 programs suspended (2025 to 2026) | Philosophy, Spanish, religious studies, and area and identity studies |
| Kent State University | 19 majors eliminated (Dec. 2025) | Ohio SB 1 compliance; fall 2025 was the final admission term |
| The New School | History program discontinued (2026) | Part of a 15% workforce reduction tied to a 20% enrollment decline |
Sources: Higher Ed Dive; Inside Higher Ed; The Chronicle of Higher Education; Forbes; Ohio Capital Journal; Record-Courier; The College Fix.
The breadth tax calculator
Because programs are judged by completions, cuts remove a large share of the catalog but a small share of students. Load a published case or enter your own institution’s numbers.
Penn State APPR final recommendations, Oct. 12, 2026.
of the catalog cut
of students affected
10.2x
breadth tax ratio
For every percentage point of students affected, this action removes about 10.2 points of the degree catalog.
View the figure as published in the report
The ratio is the author’s descriptive measure (share of programs cut divided by share of students affected). It summarizes asymmetry; it does not measure academic value or cost savings. The Indiana preset uses the roughly 600 programs targeted for elimination or merger against the roughly 1,700 that remain, and the 0.6% student share reported by Chalkbeat; treat it as approximate.
Why the shape matters
Small majors often serve few graduates but many students through general education, minors, teacher preparation, and graduate pipelines: languages, philosophy, religious studies, physics and chemistry B.A. tracks, area and ethnic studies, music theory, education specialties. Retiring degree labels saves little unless faculty lines go with them. The long-run effect is a gradual narrowing of the expertise a university retains.
Finding Two
Staff, not faculty, absorbed the first wave of cuts
The workforce story is larger than the program story, and it began earlier. In mid-2025 Stanford eliminated 363 positions against a $140 million budget cut, Northwestern cut about 425 (roughly 5% of its workforce), and USC shed more than 900 jobs. That set the pattern for the year that followed.
One-year headcount change, 2025
About 936 colleges and universities, Nov. 1, 2024 to Nov. 1, 2025.
Source: CUPA-HR, Changes in Workforce Size (2026). Staff includes administrators, professionals, and hourly workers.
View the figure as published in the report
Why staff go first
The sequencing explains why the faculty effects are likely still ahead.
- Hiring freezes and vacanciesUnfilled positions are eliminated first; no notice is required.
- Staff layoffs and buyoutsAdministrative, research support, IT, and advising roles can be cut within a budget cycle.
- Non-tenure-track nonrenewalContracts lapse at term end, often without public announcement.
- Program discontinuanceClosing a program creates the legal pathway to release tenured faculty in it.
- Financial exigencyThe last resort: tenured faculty dismissed across units, as at Illinois Tech in July 2026.
The 2026 record: representative reductions
Positions with independently reported figures. Sort by clicking a column heading; filter by sector.
| Context | ||
|---|---|---|
| University of Utah | Up to 855 | Noninstructional positions over the next year; up to 15% of staff (Sept. 2026) |
| University of Minnesota | 230 | Noninstructional jobs through layoffs and attrition (June 2026) |
| Full Sail University | 180 | Enrollment fell 13.1% (Sept. 2026) |
| Commonwealth University of Pennsylvania | Up to 175 | About 100 staff and 75 faculty; $17 million deficit (Sept. 2026) |
| Harvard University | 165 | Noninstructional roles during restructuring (summer 2026) |
| Illinois Institute of Technology | 160 | Faculty and staff; financial exigency declared (July 2026) |
| New Jersey City University | 151 | Including 33 faculty, 24 tenured, during merger with Kean (Feb. 2026) |
| Johns Hopkins University | 110 | Tied directly to a shrinking federal research portfolio (June 2026) |
| The New School | 87 | 19 faculty (10 tenured) and 68 staff; 65 fewer full-time faculty overall |
| University of Maryland, College Park | 84 | Plus vacant positions eliminated and a hiring freeze (June 2026) |
| Bowie State University | About 20 faculty | After 75 staff positions eliminated in the spring; $18 million deficit |
Sources: Higher Ed Dive; Inside Higher Ed; The Chronicle of Higher Education; Hechinger Report; The Banner; Bryan Alexander.
The correction argument
Critics have long argued that noninstructional employment outgrew enrollment and faculty for decades. Where cuts fall on duplicated management layers, the 2025 and 2026 reductions are a genuine correction.
The hidden cost
The cuts also reached academic advisers (USC), IT staff (UCLA, Indiana), and grant administrators. These roles keep students enrolled and research compliant. Their loss often reappears later as lower retention and slower grant processing.
A directional national signal. An analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics payroll series that approximate the sector estimates combined employment peaked in January 2025 and had fallen by about 95,000 jobs by mid-2026 (Levanon, 2026). The proxy includes some non-university employment, so read it as direction, not a precise count.
Finding Three
Tenure is being hollowed, not abolished
The perception that tenure-track positions are disappearing is correct over the long run and more complicated in the short run. The evidence supports three conclusions at once: a long erosion, a real but probably temporary rebound, and a legal and governance erosion that headcounts cannot see.
1. The long erosion: faculty composition
Share of all U.S. faculty by appointment type.
Source: AAUP Data Snapshot, fall 2023 (Colby, 2025). Tenure-track shares derived; values rounded.
View the figure as published in the report
Where two decades of growth went
Change in number of appointments, fall 2002 to fall 2023.
Source: AAUP Data Snapshot, fall 2023 (Colby, 2025).
View the figure as published in the report
2. The paradox: a rebound against the indicators
+7.0%
Tenure-track headcount, Nov. 2024 to Nov. 2025
The largest single-year rise in at least a decade, and the first time tenure-track growth outpaced non-tenure-track (+2.1%) and adjunct (+0.9%) growth. Many institutions protected their core faculty while cutting staff.
CUPA-HR, 2026
Why it may not last: searches run on a long cycle, so most hires reported in fall 2025 were authorized in 2024; and the survey is voluntary, so the most distressed institutions may be underrepresented.
Leading indicators for 2026 to 2027
About 588 positions at 311 institutions; the number of institutions searching fell about 25%. Lowest level since 2016 outside the pandemic year (Computing Research Association, 2026).
Chicago also plans to cut internally funded doctoral students 30% by 2030 to 2031. George Washington paused 5 Ph.D. programs and shrank 13; Brown, Cornell, Boston University, Penn, and Pittsburgh reduced or paused cohorts.
Illinois Tech terminated tenured faculty under financial exigency; Bowie State laid off at least one; Bennington warned up to a third of full-time faculty could be affected by an $18 million deficit. The count is a floor from named cases, not a national total.
Reported in coverage of NAFSA’s fall 2026 outlook. Fewer doctoral entrants today means fewer faculty candidates in the early 2030s.
3. Conditional tenure: the legal and governance erosion
Florida, Indiana, Ohio, Utah, and Kansas have mandated or tightened post-tenure review; Kansas, Wisconsin, and Utah have adopted minimum teaching loads at some institutions; Texas made faculty senates advisory. On October 22, 2026, Utah’s legislative auditor recommended lawmakers consider streamlining the due process for dismissing tenured faculty.
| State | Post-tenure review | Teaching-load minimums | Governance or bargaining limits | Program thresholds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florida | Every 5 years | |||
| Indiana | Tightened | HEA 1001 | ||
| Ohio | SB 1 | No strikes; tenure off the table in retrenchment | Fewer than 5 a year | |
| Utah | HB 438 (2024) | Some institutions | Audit urges faster dismissal | HB 265 reallocation |
| Kansas | Regents, 2026 | Regents, 2026 | ||
| Texas | Codified (2023) | SB 37: senates advisory | SB 37 program review | |
| Wisconsin | Some institutions |
In placeProposed or recommendedNot identified in this review
Sources: The Chronicle of Higher Education (2026); Inside Higher Ed (Oct. 22, 2026); Ohio Capital Journal; Texas Legislature; Higher Ed Dive. “Not identified” means not documented in the sources reviewed, not confirmed absent.
The concept
Conditional tenure: the title and much of the economic security remain, but protection against program closure, performance review, and legislative mandate has been materially reduced.
What the research says about tenure and student learning. The evidence is genuinely mixed. Ehrenberg and Zhang (2005) linked heavier reliance on part-time and non-tenure-track faculty to lower graduation rates. Bettinger and Long (2010) found adjuncts in some fields modestly increased later course taking, and Figlio, Schapiro, and Soter (2015) found non-tenure-track faculty at one research university produced stronger learning gains in introductory courses. What the research supports is that teaching quality depends on stable appointments and real integration into academic life, conditions contingent employment often lacks.
Root Causes
Five forces converging in the same fiscal year
Each force is manageable alone. Together they compress revenue from several directions at once, and each hits a different revenue line, which is why the contraction is uneven. Select a force.
Federal research disruption
Federal research funding to universities fell an estimated 6% in fiscal 2025. NIH and NSF grant terminations, the attempted 15% cap on indirect cost reimbursement, and the USAID drawdown created direct losses and planning uncertainty.
Congress rejected the proposed 40% NIH cut, funding the agency at $48.7 billion for fiscal 2026, and the indirect cost cap was permanently enjoined. Even so, the Brennan Center estimated about $1.4 billion in the research funding it tracked remained frozen or canceled at the start of 2026, and Johns Hopkins reported a 28% decline in active awards.
Sources: CASRAI (2026a, 2026b); Brennan Center for Justice (2026).
Where it lands
- Research staff and grant administrator layoffs
- Hiring freezes at research universities
- Smaller doctoral cohorts, because Ph.D. stipends ride on the same grants
The endowment tax
The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (2025) replaced the flat 1.4% excise tax with tiers of 1.4%, 4%, and 8% based on endowment per student, exempting institutions with fewer than 3,000 tuition-paying students.
8%
More than $2 million per student: Princeton, Yale, MIT
4%
$750,000 to $2 million: Stanford, Harvard, Notre Dame, Dartmouth, Rice, Vanderbilt, Richmond
1.4%
$500,000 to $750,000 per student
Sources: The Nation (2026), citing Forbes; Troutman Pepper (2025).
Where it lands
About $300 million a year
Yale’s provost’s description of the ongoing cost, met with a hiring freeze and spending cuts (Chief Investment Officer, 2025). Few institutions pay the top rates, but they train a disproportionate share of future faculty.
Graduate finance
Since July 1, 2026, Grad PLUS has been closed to new borrowers. More than 440,000 students borrowed through it in 2023 to 2024.
| Borrower type | Annual limit | Aggregate limit |
|---|---|---|
| Graduate | $20,500 | $100,000 |
| Professional | $50,000 | $200,000 |
| Lifetime federal (all loans) | Not applicable | $257,500 |
Sources: CAPPS (2026); Saving for College (2026); UNC Charlotte Graduate School (2025).
Where it lands
An earnings test can cost graduate programs loan eligibility if graduates earn less than the median bachelor’s holder in their field and state. Master’s programs that cross-subsidized other activities now face both a financing ceiling and an accountability threshold.
The international student decline
International students disproportionately pay full tuition and fill master’s and doctoral programs. NAFSA and JB International project a 9.5% drop in total international enrollment for fall 2026 and up to $3.4 billion in lost economic activity.
At public flagships, Indiana University’s international enrollment fell 15.6% in fall 2026 and Ohio State’s enrollment of Chinese students fell 20.7%. Illinois Tech, 42% international, cited the decline directly in its cuts.
Sources: NAFSA (2026); Washington Post (2026); Higher Ed Dive (2026c); Inside Higher Ed (2026c).
View the figure as published in the report
The demographic peak
U.S. high school graduates peaked at about 3.9 million in 2025 and are projected to fall to about 3.4 million by 2041. Thirty-eight states will see fewer graduates; only the South grows.
Total enrollment still rose 1.0% in fall 2025, but the gains went to community colleges and public four-year institutions; undergraduate enrollment at private nonprofit four-year colleges fell 1.6%.
Sources: WICHE (2024); K-12 Dive (2024); National Student Clearinghouse Research Center (2026).
2030 value derived from WICHE’s projected 3.1% decline from the 2025 peak.
The compound effect
All three major rating agencies assigned negative outlooks to higher education for 2026. Share of private institutions with negative operating margins:
Moody’s projects sector revenue growth slowing to 3.5% in 2026 from 3.8%. A sixth, slower force sits underneath: fewer than four in ten Americans express confidence in higher education, down from nearly six in ten in 2015, which weakens the political case for public investment.
Sources: Inside Higher Ed (2025a); The Edu Ledger (2025); Duke Chronicle (2025); Hechinger Report, citing Gallup (2026).
View the figure as published in the report
Original Analysis
Institutional Exposure Matrix
Because each force hits a different revenue line, institutional type predicts exposure better than any single headline. This matrix was developed for the report from the evidence reviewed. It is a qualitative judgment, not a validated scoring model, and institutions vary within each segment.
Exposure by segment
Select a row to read the segment profile.
| Segment | Federal research | International | Endowment tax | Grad loan caps | State mandates | Demographic decline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wealthy private research universities | High | Moderate | High | Moderate | Low | Low |
| Public flagships and R1s | High | High | None | Moderate | Moderate | Low |
| Regional publics and branch campuses | Low | Moderate | None | Moderate | High | High |
| Small tuition-dependent private colleges | Low | Moderate | None | Moderate | Low | High |
| Graduate-heavy and professional institutions | Moderate | High | Low | High | Low | Low |
| Community colleges | Low | Low | None | Low | Moderate | Moderate |
NoneLowModerateHigh
Wealthy private research universities
Face the most simultaneous federal shocks but have the reserves to absorb them. Their response is to shrink staff and doctoral cohorts, which exports the pain to the national faculty pipeline.
Exposure self-check for your institution
Rate each force for your institution. The tool totals your profile, shows it against the closest segment, and names your two highest exposures. This is a discussion aid for leadership teams and boards, not a validated risk score.
12 / 18
composite exposure
Elevated
pressure band
Closest segment: regional publics and branch campuses.
Bands divide the 0 to 18 range into equal quarters (0 to 4 contained, 5 to 9 moderate, 10 to 13 elevated, 14 to 18 severe). They are arithmetic conveniences for discussion, not validated thresholds, and the forces are equally weighted although their dollar effects differ by institution.
Existential, not operational, risk
442 of about 1,700
Private nonprofit four-year colleges, serving about 670,000 students, that Huron Consulting Group estimates are at risk of closing or merging within a decade (as reported by NPR and the Hechinger Report, April 2026).
Closures already under way
At least 16 nonprofit colleges announced closures in 2025. Closing in 2026 include Hampshire College, Anna Maria College, Labouré College of Healthcare, and Sterling College, and Penn State will close seven Commonwealth campuses after the 2026 to 2027 year.
What It Means
The future of America’s centers of higher education
A sector built for growth in students, federal research, international demand, and public trust is resizing itself for a decade in which each of those inputs is flat or falling. The numbers so far are smaller than the headlines. The structural changes are larger.
Seven structural consequences
Narrower universities
Fewer majors in languages, humanities, the arts, and specialized sciences. Courses may survive as service teaching, but fewer students can major in these fields close to home.
Access deserts
Branch campus closures and regional program cuts fall hardest on place-bound, first-generation, and rural students.
A faculty pipeline gap
Cohorts cut in 2025 and 2026 produce fewer Ph.D.s around 2031 to 2033, just as faculty hired in the 1990s and 2000s retire.
Governance shifting outward
Curriculum and portfolio decisions move from faculty to boards, coordinating agencies, and legislatures: more responsive, but with less disciplinary expertise.
Conditional tenure as the norm
More post-tenure review, teaching-load mandates, and use of program discontinuance and exigency as pathways around tenure.
Thinner student support
Cuts to advising, technology, counseling, and research administration show up in retention and completion before any budget line.
Research capacity relocation
Reduced federal support and fewer international graduate students may push research and talent toward industry and other countries, a shift slow to reverse.
The common thread
Each consequence trades long-run capacity for short-run balance. None shows up in this year’s enrollment numbers; all of them show up in the university of 2035.
Three scenarios to 2030
Select a scenario to see its signposts. The report’s assessment of the most likely path is marked.
Managed consolidation
States and systems use program review and mergers deliberately; savings are reinvested; tenure-line hiring stabilizes at a lower level.
Signposts to watch
- Reinvestment reported alongside cuts
- System-level shared programs
- Stable or rising tenure-track hiring in the 2027 CUPA-HR data
The hollowed middle Most likely
Elite research universities and community colleges stabilize; regional publics and small privates shrink unevenly; breadth erodes outside major metros. A sector that remains large and globally significant at the top and bottom of the market but becomes thinner, more regionally unequal, and more centrally managed in between.
Signposts to watch
- Rising closures among private colleges
- Continued branch campus consolidation
- A widening gap in program counts by region
Disorderly retrenchment
Additional federal or state shocks force reactive cuts; exigency declarations multiply; tenured layoffs become routine.
Signposts to watch
- Growth in financial exigency declarations
- Rating downgrades outpacing upgrades
- Further declines in international and graduate enrollment
Implications for health professions education
The end of Grad PLUS affects high-cost clinical doctorates such as nurse anesthesia, whose cost of attendance often exceeds the new caps, although federal officials argue about 95% of nursing and education students will be unaffected. NIH terminations have already produced layoffs in schools of public health, including at Johns Hopkins.
Only about 26% of medical school faculty held tenured or tenure-track appointments in fall 2023. Allied health programs at regional universities (imaging, respiratory therapy, laboratory science) are often small by completion count even when workforce demand is strong. Health system leaders should be ready to document demand when clinical education partners face program review.
Action
Recommendations, watch list, and sources
Institutions that make deliberate choices about breadth, people, and pipeline now will define what the American university looks like in 2035. Those that wait will have those choices made for them by statute, by rating agencies, or by the calendar. Select your role.
- Run program review as a portfolio strategy, not a threshold exercise. Weigh completions, credit hours taught, workforce alignment, mission, and cost; protect service teaching where degree labels are retired.
- Pair every reduction with a stated reinvestment. Cuts that fund visible priorities preserve trust; cuts that only close deficits erode it.
- Stress test against all five forces at once. Model international, graduate, research, and state revenue under combined downside assumptions.
- Protect student-facing staff, or measure the cost of cutting them. Advising, financial aid, counseling, and research compliance show up in retention and grant throughput.
- Use completion thresholds as triggers for review, not automatic elimination, and credit programs for the courses they teach to non-majors.
- Fund shared and online program consortia so low-enrollment fields stay available across a state system without each campus carrying the cost.
- Preserve due process for faculty dismissal. Weakening it may save little while making national recruitment harder for public institutions.
- Document the full contribution of small programs (general education enrollment, minors, teacher preparation, research output) before review begins.
- Engage early in governance, even advisory governance. Influence is greatest before recommendations are written.
- Build cross-disciplinary and cross-campus program structures that meet completion thresholds while preserving disciplinary expertise.
- Ask institutions directly about program review status, teach-out commitments, and financial health before enrolling.
- Employers and health systems that depend on specific programs should communicate workforce demand to universities and state agencies, and consider clinical partnership and sponsorship models.
Leading indicator watch list for 2027
Check items off as each data release arrives. Checks are saved in this browser only.
| Track | Indicator | Source and timing | Direction of concern |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tenure-track faculty headcount change | CUPA-HR workforce survey (Aug. 2027) | A return to flat or negative growth | |
| New international enrollment, fall 2026 | IIE Fall 2026 Snapshot and Open Doors (Nov. 2026) | Declines deeper than 17% | |
| Graduate enrollment after Grad PLUS | National Student Clearinghouse (Jan. 2027) | Master’s and professional declines | |
| Negative operating margins, privates | Moody’s, S&P, and Fitch sector outlooks | Above the 16% forecast | |
| Nonprofit closure announcements | Inside Higher Ed and Higher Ed Dive trackers | More than 16 per year | |
| New state program mandates | 2027 legislative sessions | Adoption beyond IN, OH, UT, and TX |
0 of 6 indicators reviewed.
Limitations. The analysis relies on announced actions and national datasets with known lags. Program counts conflate eliminations, suspensions, and mergers. The CUPA-HR survey is voluntary, and the BLS-based employment estimate is a proxy. Exposure ratings are judgments, not measurements. Some announced cuts may be revised, reversed by litigation, or offset by new investment.
Sources
Filter by type. Links open the original source.
- Alexander, B. (2026, May). Campus cuts, closures, mergers, and layoffs for spring 2026. Bryan Alexander. Source
- American Council on Education. (2026a, January 20). ACE survey: Federal policy uncertainty weighs heavily on higher education leaders. Source
- American Council on Education. (2026b, September 10). ACE survey: Financial viability and perceptions of value are top of mind for higher ed leaders. Source
- Appleton, A. (2026, April 1). Indiana colleges and universities eliminate or merge hundreds of degrees. Chalkbeat Indiana. Source
- Bettinger, E. P., & Long, B. T. (2010). Does cheaper mean better? The impact of using adjunct instructors on student outcomes. Review of Economics and Statistics, 92(3), 598-613.
- Brennan Center for Justice. (2026). The cost of the Trump administration's attacks on research funding. Source
- CAPPS. (2026, June 15). New graduate school loan limits start July 1: What students need to know. Source
- CASRAI. (2026a). University budget cuts and research layoffs continue into summer 2026. Source
- CASRAI. (2026b). NIH funding cuts in 2026: What actually happened. Source
- Chief Investment Officer. (2025). Endowment tax increase will have significant impact on Yale finances. Source
- Chronicle of Higher Education. (2025). Doctoral programs were already under strain. Things may be getting worse. Source
- Chronicle of Higher Education. (2026a). Here's the latest news on campus finance [Live blog]. Source
- Chronicle of Higher Education. (2026b). Colleges' tenure-track faculty numbers rise, while staff counts show steep drop. Source
- Chronicle of Higher Education. (2026c). 'It's just been agony': Facing a big deficit, the New School begins layoffs. Source
- Chronicle of Higher Education. (2026d). Another state's public universities are tightening post-tenure review and dictating teaching loads. Source
- Colby, G. (2025a). Data snapshot: Tenure and contingency in US higher education, fall 2023. Academe, 111(2). American Association of University Professors. Source
- Colby, G. (2025b). Data snapshot: Tenure and contingency in US medical schools, fall 2023. Academe, 111(2). American Association of University Professors. Source
- Computing Research Association. (2026, January). What advertised faculty searches reveal about computer science hiring in 2026. Computing Research News. Source
- CUPA-HR. (2026). Changes in workforce size. College and University Professional Association for Human Resources. Source
- Dayton Daily News. (2026). Central State University faculty cuts tied to Senate Bill 1. Source
- Deloitte. (2026). 2026 higher education trends. Deloitte Insights. Source
- Duke Chronicle. (2025, December 10). Big Three credit agencies warn of negative outlook for higher education. Source
- Ehrenberg, R. G., & Zhang, L. (2005). Do tenured and tenure-track faculty matter? Journal of Human Resources, 40(3), 647-659.
- Entrepreneur. (2026, October). Universities face a budget squeeze. Cutting spending is only part of the answer. Source
- Figlio, D. N., Schapiro, M. O., & Soter, K. B. (2015). Are tenure track professors better teachers? Review of Economics and Statistics, 97(4), 715-724.
- Hechinger Report and NPR. (2026, April 13). Huron Consulting Group projection of private college closure risk [As reported]. Source
- Higher Ed Dive. (2025, June). Stanford University bracing for layoffs amid federal policy shifts [Dive Brief]. Source
- Higher Ed Dive. (2026a, October). Penn State officials recommend closing 47 undergraduate programs. Source
- Higher Ed Dive. (2026b, September 10). The latest in college layoffs: Full Sail, IIT and Johns Hopkins. Source
- Higher Ed Dive. (2026c, September). Major public universities report hits to international enrollment. Source
- Higher Ed Dive. (2026d, September 10). University of Utah could cut up to 15% of staff ahead of future enrollment drops. Source
- Inside Higher Ed. (2025a, November 25). Moody's projects a negative outlook for higher education. Source
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